The forecast eases supply concerns after 2022 output fell for the first time in seven years.
Output of recently harvested off-season rice in India and Thailand, the world’s top two exporters, has exceeded last year’s levels and farmers are preparing to plant the main crop in the coming months, at a price hovers near a two-year high.
[Thailand aims to export 7.5-8 million tons of rice this year]
Shirley Mustafa, an economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), said major producers in the Northern Hemisphere, including India, Pakistan and Thailand, will start planting their main crops in May and June.
Expert Mustafa said that the increase in rice acreage amid rising rice prices and wider access to fertilizers could sustain the output expansion.
India’s export restrictions last year, coupled with a drop in global output following a heatwave in China and floods in Pakistan, lifted prices of the staple and deepened concerns about inflation. Food.
However, rice prices have fallen in recent weeks, with the 5% broken rice widely used in India, the world’s largest rice producer, and Thailand, quoted far below the highs. the highest in two years recorded in 2023.
Winter rice production in India rose to 22.8 million tonnes from 18.5 million tonnes a year ago as above-average rainfall in September and October allowed farmers to expand production. The recovery momentum has offset the decline in the Summer crop.
According to FAO, off-season rice production in Thailand this year is expected to increase to 5.1 million tons, up 24% from a year ago.
Globally, rice acreage is expected to increase from 163.74 million hectares to 165.7 million hectares in the 2023-2024 crop year, with production expected to increase, the International Grains Council (IGC) said. from 509.30 million tons to 521.49 million tons.
Peter Clubb, market analyst at IGC, thinks higher prices will encourage planting activity for the 2023-2024 crop year, especially from major exporting countries.
Rice producers are expected to use more fertilizers to increase yields.
Fertilizer prices fell in the first quarter of 2023, as supplies from Belarus, the third largest exporter of potash (potassium compounds, key raw materials for fertilizer production), resumed and input costs fell, after when it hits a high in 2022.
However, weather remains a key factor for Asian rice production.
Some meteorologists predict an El Nino phenomenon will cause drought for much of Asia.
